Week 10 College Pick 'em previewBy Will Harris College Pick 'em is a pick-the-winner game with a twist: players must rank their picks in order of confidence. It's not as easy as it looks, so I'll weigh in every Thursday to help you make those tough decisions. Be sure to log in to the College Pick 'em page on Mondays for the upcoming week's matchups and previews, and don't forget to check the message boards for plenty of chatter about all the week's action. Contest update
Chunkross has moved from second into first with 51 points last week, 18 better than the average of 33 points. Mummery and Popski are tied for second. Congratulations to the leaders, and good luck to all! Be sure to look for updates to my rankings on the contest message board prior to making your final selections at locktime on Saturday morning. Texas Tech versus Texas (10 points) The Longhorns are Texas Tech's most hated rival, and this has been the circled game on the Red Raiders' calendar all year. Texas has won five straight games in the series. Most were competitive, two were controversial and all were high-scoring. These two schools have averaged 79 points combined per game the past six meetings, with the lowest total 66 points in 2006. Texas is the nation's No. 1 team, and in seventh-ranked Tech faces a fourth straight highly ranked opponent. The Longhorns have great leadership and chemistry, but it won't be easy to maintain 60 minutes of high intensity for yet another prime-time clash. This is the best Red Raiders team in Mike Leach's tenure, both offensively and defensively. Texas Tech has not won a conference championship since a 1955 Border Intercollegiate Athletic Association title. The player on this year's team know full well that this season -- and this game -- represents the best chance in the program's history to change that. More importantly, the Raiders have the goods to deliver. The defense is easily Tech's best in more than a decade, top NCAA passer Graham Harrell is the most experienced signal-caller Leach has ever had, and wideout Michael Crabtree's hands and athleticism have provided the missing link in the red zone. Both teams will move the ball freely, but when it's crunch time in the red zone, Tech's defense will step up and prove that the hungry underdog wants this game more, while Crabtree will be the Raiders' dagger against a Texas secondary that doesn't have the players to stop him. The host will race to a lead and hold on, but it won't really be an upset. Air Force at Army (9 points) Things are looking up at West Point as Army has exceeded expectations in five straight games, winning three of the past four and actually outgaining the opposition in the past three. The Cadets have really stepped up defensively during the past month, though the weather helped play 12th man in last week's stonewalling of Louisiana Tech. Still, Army averages only 41 yards per game trough the air, and it's hard to see the option attack moving the chains much against a respectable Air Force defense that practices assignment football against its own team each week. The Flyboys never take this game for granted, and this year they have a few extra days to prepare, having beaten New Mexico last Thursday. Air Force has a new look offensively, with freshmen Tim Jefferson and Asher Clark taking over starting roles at quarterback and tailback. The changes have sparked some offensive improvement during the past few weeks, and while this shapes up as a low-scoring game, the disciplined Falcons should muster just enough punch to get past their comrades-in-arms for the 11th time in a dozen meetings. Miami at Virginia (8 points) Remember when Miami lost to Florida back in early September? The Hurricanes haven't lost a game by more than four points since. How about Duke's 31-3 destruction of Virginia, also in September? The Cavaliers haven't lost a game at all since then. These teams have combined for seven straight wins, but it's the Wahoos who find themselves in sole possession of first place in the ACC Coastal. It's also the Hoos who triumphed last year in this game, a 48-0 beatdown in the final game at the Orange Bowl. Revenge often isn't much of a factor when, as in this case, just four players who started last year's game are still starting for the team on the losing end of the previous meeting. Still, the Orange Bowl whitewashing was sufficiently humiliating that the Hurricanes are collectively seeking redemption. Miami is still rotating Robert Marve and Jacory Harris at quarterback, but now that running back Javarris James is nearing 100 percent the Canes will lean more heavily on the rushing attack. Virginia will do the same with Cedric Peerman, and the result should be a typical ACC battle of defense and field position. The Canes have the better run defense and the better special teams and a strong desire for payback. West Virginia at Connecticut (7 points) West Virginia is alone atop the Big East standings, but the Huskies are one of four one-loss squads sharing second place. Hamstrung by coach Bill Stewart's changes to the offense, the Mountaineers' former big-play attack had been held to fewer than the FBS average 5.4 yards per play in four of six games this year, managing gains of 20 or more yards just 17 times all season. Last week against Auburn, however, the West Virginia offense produced nine such plays, gashing the Tigers' defense for 271 rushing yards on just 35 carries. That damage was mostly courtesy of running back Noel Devine, but Stewart has hinted that quarterback Pat White will be asked to carry the ball more often down the stretch. White notched a mere eight yards rushing against Auburn, but is now another week removed from his concussion issues. It appears that the Mountaineer offense is hitting its stride right now, which is bad news for a Connecticut team that allowed 66 points when these teams met last season. This one is in Storrs, where the Huskies haven't lost since 2006. Connecticut may still be sporting a third-string quarterback, however, so Donald Brown will again be asked to carry the load. The West Virginia run defense has played well all year, and an offensively challenged Connecticut team can't count on a repeat of the eight turnovers forced against Cincinnati last week. The Huskies have a coaching advantage here, but that's about it. A more talented West Virginia team has played solid defense all along and is now beginning to play to its offensive capabilities. South Carolina versus Tennessee (6 points) It's the 14th meeting between Steve Spurrier and Philip Fulmer, and the first not to feature a ranked team. The Alabama game was the circle-the-wagons moment for a reeling Tennessee team, and the Vols played hard but were simply outclassed by a better squad. With no more marquee opponents left to provide a shot at redemption, this is officially a lost season for Tennessee, the possible Fram Oil Filter Bowl bid notwithstanding. Regardless, coach Philip Fulmer may not return next season, and it will be tough for the Vols to regroup after last week's game ended so disastrously. South Carolina hasn't met expectations either, and for some of the same reasons. Both teams have been offensively ineffective, particularly at the quarterback position. The two defenses have shined, and on the balance these are closely matched teams. The Gamecocks, however, have had the benefit of a bye week to recover from the LSU loss, and are the healthier team both physically and mentally. Carolina also has more to play for during the remainder of the season, as a New Year's Day bowl bid and 10-3 record are still possibilities. Spurrier bests Fulmer perhaps for the last time. South Carolina, 28-14 Florida versus Georgia (at Jacksonville) (5 points) The stakes are high in this matchup of top-10 teams, as the winner all but locks up the SEC East and remains alive in the national title hunt. Georgia has won three straight since the debacle against Alabama, including a Florida-esque 52-38 pasting of LSU last week. Florida's pass defense has been incredible, but the Gators haven't faced a quarterback in Matthew Stafford's league. The Bulldogs will put some points on the board on skill-position talent alone, but the Gators have the edge at the line of scrimmage no matter which team has the ball. Knowshon Moreno will find it tough sledding all day, and while the Gators won't exactly run wild, the LSU game did expose Georgia's defense as the merely good-but-not-great unit that it is. Much has been made of Florida players feeling disrespected by the motivational ploy Mark Richt used last year when he had his players gather in the end zone to jump up and down after the game's first score, collecting an intentional unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. The scenario is different this year, as Georgia is no upstart, semi-overlooked, twice-beaten 20th-ranked team like the 2007 Cocktail Party entrant. Motivational edges are hard to come by when both sides have so much to gain. Both teams bring their A-game, but the Gators prove to be a touch stronger. Georgia Tech versus Florida State (4 points) Improved play on the offensive line and a strong senior season from running back Antone Smith have provided Florida State with its best ground attack in years. The Seminoles now boast the best overall record in the ACC at 6-1 and are tied with Maryland atop the Atlantic Division standings. Georgia Tech sits at 6-2 after an upset home loss to surging Virginia last week. The Yellow Jackets face a top defense this week, but while Florida State's stop unit has the speed and athleticism to contain Tech's option attack, the Seminoles consistently raise doubts about their discipline. They'll certainly have to be focused on their assignments this week, since Tech's stellar defensive front seven isn't likely to allow the Seminole offense to move the chains much either. Big plays will win this one, with the Noles taking advantage of injuries in the Georgia Tech secondary to spring their talented receivers on a few long pass plays. The Jackets, meanwhile, will reap even more benefit than the usual from the opponent's unfamiliarity with their new schemes; these teams haven't met in five years. Tech should capitalize on some missed assignments with a few long runs. Sustained drives should be scarce for both sides, and this will be a close game between two evenly matched, though dissimilar teams. Notre Dame versus Pittsburgh (3 points) Last week's humiliation at the hands of a previously impotent Rutgers team might have earned the considerable distinction of worst-coached Pittsburgh game of the Dave Wannstedt era. The Panthers were clearly surprised by the Knights' pass-heavy game plan, allowing struggling Rutgers triggerman Mike Teel to throw one play-action bomb after another over the top without making an adjustment until the game was out of reach. Notre Dame's aerial assault will be another test for the Pitt secondary, but at least the Panthers will be expecting it, and the team had played respectable pass defense all year until last week. Pitt quarterback Bill Stull will be a game-time decision due to a concussion, so the Panthers will counterattack with running back LeSean McCoy, who has topped 140 yards in four straight games. The Irish rush defense certainly hasn't demonstrated it can slow down a decent running game, with Michigan State and Stanford each collecting 200 yards. Though these are not similar offenses, the overall production marks these units as equals. The same can be said of the defenses, heralding a close game. Oregon at California (2 points) California, like Oregon State, is in control of its Pac-10 destiny, but Oregon and USC are also in the mix of one-loss teams atop the leaderboard. The Bears are still rotating Kevin Riley and Nate Longshore at quarterback, but Jeremiah Masoli's big game against Arizona State has solidified him as the Ducks' starter even though Justin Roper is healthy again. The Ducks run more often than California, though the teams' yards per carry is nearly identical. Oregon's overall offensive production has been hampered by quarterback injuries for much of the year, but the unit is riding high with the red-hot Masoli at the helm. Cal hasn't been quite as impressive as the scoreboard indicates, averaging just 361 yards per game in the past four contests. The Bears continue to shuffle their offensive line due to injuries, and increasing sack totals are a factor in the failure of either quarterback to seize the job. The resumes are comparable in this matchup, but the Ducks are in better current form. Illinois versus Iowa (1 point) Iowa has won five straight in this series, including a 10-6 win in Iowa City last year at a time when the Hawkeyes were reeling from four straight losses while the 5-1 Illini were coming off back-to-back wins over ranked teams. This year is somewhat of a role reversal, as Illinois has lost two of three to fall to 4-4 while Iowa has posted consecutive blowouts prior to last week's bye. Neither team has really logged a quality win. Illinois is more explosive; Iowa boasts the better defense. The rested Hawks have been showing steady offensive improvement, and Shonn Greene should find some room to run against the Illini's inconsistent rush defense. Greene is the nation's third-leading rusher, but Illini quarterback Juice Williams is the game's top playmaker. Williams is the only player who has given Penn State's defense trouble this season, and he gives the host an advantage under center. Iowa is the more physical team, but home field looms large and Illinois has shown resiliency after losses this season. Will Harris is a college football and fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com. |
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